"Seasonal Records Usually Elude Rookies"

Take a look at this fine article by George Vass.

Link to Baseball Digest 2001 article.

2009 Rookie of the Year: Not Impressed

Whoever gets the ROY award this year will get it, not because they have good numbers, but because they're lucky no one else had better numbers.

No rookie position player this year is likely to hit more than 20 HR (Garret Jones leads rookies with 16), or more than 80 RBI (Gerardo Parra leads with 50), or much higher than .300 (Chris Coughlan leads with .296), or get more than 150 hits (Coughlan leads with 109).  

Among pitchers, no rookie is likely to get any more than 15 wins (Jeff Niemann leads rookies with a 12-5 record), or to the 150 K mark (Brett Anderson leads with 109 K's), or to the 30 saves mark (Andrew Bailey leads with 20 out of 24 opportunities).  A couple of ERAs are outstanding, though: those are Bailey, with 1.90 over 71 innings, and J.A. Happ, with 2.63 over 142.3 innings.

So what are my ROY predictions?  It's not hard, given we have only one month left of regular season: 

• NL: Chris Coughlan, FLA, because of his .300-ish batting average.
• AL: Andrew Bailey, OAK, because of his 25-ish saves total and his sub-2.00 ERA.

Those are my votes, anyway.  What the actual results are, let's see.

Here are the current stats of the top 2009 rookies, according to mlb.com's Top Rookies Tracker.

Batting

Player▲	TEAM	POS	G	AB	R	H	TB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
Andrus, Elvis	TEX	SS	112	360	53	96	136	11	7	5	27	30	61	24	3	.330	.378	.267
Beckham, Gordon	CWS	3B	77	280	39	76	122	22	0	8	49	30	51	6	4	.348	.436	.271
Cabrera, Everth	SD	SS	73	258	41	69	103	14	7	2	26	33	57	20	3	.356	.399	.267
Coghlan, Chris	FLA	OF	97	368	57	109	162	18	4	9	38	45	66	6	1	.373	.440	.296
Dickerson, Chris	CIN	OF	96	253	31	70	95	13	3	2	15	39	65	11	3	.373	.375	.277
Fowler, Dexter	COL	OF	113	378	62	102	159	27	9	4	33	63	105	26	9	.372	.421	.270
Gardner, Brett	NYY	OF	85	200	36	55	80	4	6	3	20	23	31	20	5	.354	.400	.275
Getz, Chris	CWS	2B	89	311	43	83	114	17	4	2	28	23	43	18	2	.325	.367	.267
Ishikawa, Travis	SF	1B	98	270	38	70	109	8	2	9	35	20	72	2	2	.319	.404	.259
Jones, Garrett	PIT	OF	52	202	30	59	122	13	1	16	31	22	45	9	1	.362	.604	.292
McCutchen, Andrew	PIT	OF	76	308	52	89	151	20	6	10	43	32	56	15	3	.357	.490	.289
McGehee, Casey	MIL	3B	86	253	45	74	123	14	1	11	40	25	46	0	2	.354	.486	.292
Nix, Jayson	CWS	2B	75	203	30	48	91	10	0	11	29	23	44	9	0	.320	.448	.236
Parra, Gerardo	ARI	OF	91	368	51	105	151	15	8	5	50	21	71	5	5	.322	.410	.285
Rasmus, Colby	STL	OF	118	376	58	96	160	20	1	14	44	28	72	3	1	.311	.426	.255
Reimold, Nolan	BAL	OF	92	314	42	84	140	16	2	12	39	43	70	8	2	.361	.446	.268
Wieters, Matt	BAL	C	67	243	20	65	92	10	1	5	26	16	58	0	0	.314	.379	.267

Pitching

Player▲	TEAM	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	HBP	BB	SO
Anderson, Brett	OAK	7	10	4.42	25	25	1	1	0	0	146.2	150	82	72	18	3	41	119
Bailey, Andrew	OAK	6	3	1.90	56	0	0	0	20	24	71.0	43	15	15	4	0	22	75
Bergesen, Brad	BAL	7	5	3.43	19	19	1	0	0	0	123.1	126	52	47	11	5	32	65
Cecil, Brett	TOR	5	3	4.96	15	14	0	0	0	0	78.0	93	47	43	13	4	34	59
Hanson, Tommy	ATL	9	3	3.15	15	15	0	0	0	0	88.2	79	32	31	9	4	32	73
Happ, J.A.	PHI	10	3	2.63	30	18	3	2	0	0	143.2	117	42	42	15	5	51	97
Kawakami, Kenshin	ATL	7	10	3.97	25	25	0	0	0	0	142.2	139	69	63	15	5	53	98
Niemann, Jeff	TB	12	5	3.80	25	24	2	2	0	0	146.2	143	67	62	14	6	47	92
Outman, Josh	OAK	4	1	3.48	14	12	0	0	0	0	67.1	53	30	26	9	0	25	53
Porcello, Rick	DET	11	8	4.27	24	24	0	0	0	0	128.2	135	66	61	20	2	42	71
Romero, Ricky	TOR	11	6	3.95	22	22	0	0	0	0	136.2	141	61	60	16	7	56	104
Wells, Randy	CHC	9	7	3.06	20	20	0	0	0	0	126.2	121	48	43	11	5	33	78
Zimmermann, Jordan	WSH	3	5	4.63	16	16	0	0	0	0	91.1	95	51	47	10	4	29	92