2011 Projected Milestones (MLB.com Article)

Jeter has company in milestone chase

Mo, Thome, A-Rod, Chipper among those also chasing history.

Link.

Will A-Rod beat Rickey Henderson in Runs Scored?

Will A-Rod become the all-time leader in runs scored?  As of today (June 13, 2011), he is no. 18 in the all-time list, with 1797, trailing right behind Ted Williams (1798).  The key is factor to consider is that A-Rod is 35 years old.  He needs to score 399 runs to pass Rickey Henderson, to tops the list at 2295.  How long does he need to do it?  At 80 runs scored per year, he would only need five years to do it.  Of course, this would require that he stay healthy and keeps playing until he is 40--which isn't unreasonable, except he has not stayed healthy in his last three years.  We'll see...

All-Time Runs Scored Leaders (Baseball-Reference.com)

Rank	Player (age)	Runs Scored	Bats
1.	Rickey Henderson+	2295	R
2.	Ty Cobb+	2246	L
3.	Barry Bonds	2227	L
4.	Hank Aaron+	2174	R
	Babe Ruth+	2174	L
6.	Pete Rose	2165	B
7.	Willie Mays+	2062	R
8.	Cap Anson+	1999	R
9.	Stan Musial+	1949	L
10.	Lou Gehrig+	1888	L
11.	Tris Speaker+	1882	L
12.	Mel Ott+	1859	L
13.	Craig Biggio	1844	R
14.	Frank Robinson+	1829	R
15.	Eddie Collins+	1821	L
16.	Carl Yastrzemski+	1816	L
17.	Ted Williams+	1798	L
18.	Alex Rodriguez (35)	1797	R

Yahoo Answers: Will Alex Rodriguez Break the Runs Scored Record Now Held by Rickey Henderson?

How Clemente Opened the Door to the Latinos

Franceour: Citi Field's Huge Dimensions Affects Mets' Numbers

Link to Fox Sports article.

The Changeup: The Almighty Equalizer

Link to MLB.com article.

Is Bautista on Steroids?

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

SmarterFan Projections: Can Jeter Make it to 4,000 Hits?

We know Jeter is bound for the 3,000 hit club.  With 2,965 career hits as of today (May 15, 2011), he will collect those remaining 35 hits in a little over a month, probably before the All-Star Break, assuming he stays healthy.  It's only a matter of when.  Not only that, but he will likely end up close to 3,100 hits by the end of the year. 

Yet, what is he likely to accomplish by the end of his career?  Can he make it to 4,000?  Only two people have ever reached that incredible mark (Pete Rose with 4256, Ty Cobb with 4189).  But is it nonesensical to hope Jeter makes it?  I say it isn't.

He is no. 28 in the all-time hits list, and rapidly ascending.   And the key is that he's only 37 years old. That doesn't exactly make him a youngster, but it means he has a few years left to go.  I'd say maybe five or so more.  If he does, then he's in.

Let's assume that he gets to 3100 by the end of the year, and continues to play until age 43, collecting a modest average of 150 hits per year. You'll agree that this is conservative if you consider that he's never had a full season with fewer than 156 hits (2003), and his 162-game average is 206 hits.  Plus, at 600 AB per year, 150 hits means an avg. of .250; yet he's never had a full season with less than .270 (2011).  Anyway, assuming that he ends up with 3100 this year, then gets 150 hits per year until he's 42: this results in a projection of approximately 4,000 hits.

You will say that this is unrealistic because it is unlikely he plays until age 43.  Ok, so let's say he retires at 42.  After reaching 3,100 at the end of the year, he would only need to hit 180 per year to make it to 4,000 by age 42.  To make it there by age 41 he would have to turn into an Ichiro, hitting 225 per year, which is highly unlikely.  So the key is longevity.

Either way--whether he makes it to 4,000 or not--he will make it to the top 10 in the all-time list.  And I will be proud to tell my grandchildren than I watched him do it.

Here are Jeter's career stats as of today (May 15, 2011).

Source: mlb.com

BATTING Regular Season Career Stats

YEAR▲	TEAM▲	G▼	AB▼	R▼	H▼	TB▼	2B▼	3B▼	HR▼	RBI▼	BB▼	IBB▼	SO▼	SB▼	CS▼	AVG▼	OBP▼	SLG▼	OPS▼	GO/AO▼	▲	▲	▲	▲	▲
1995	NYY	15	48	5	12	18	4	1	0	7	3	0	11	0	0	.250	.294	.375	.669	-
1996	NYY	157	582	104	183	250	25	6	10	78	48	1	102	14	7	.314	.370	.430	.800	-
1997	NYY	159	654	116	190	265	31	7	10	70	74	0	125	23	12	.291	.370	.405	.775	-
1998	NYY	149	626	127	203	301	25	8	19	84	57	1	119	30	6	.324	.384	.481	.864	-
1999	NYY	158	627	134	219	346	37	9	24	102	91	5	116	19	8	.349	.438	.552	.989	1.30
2000	NYY	148	593	119	201	285	31	4	15	73	68	4	99	22	4	.339	.416	.481	.896	1.43
2001	NYY	150	614	110	191	295	35	3	21	74	56	3	99	27	3	.311	.377	.480	.858	1.77
2002	NYY	157	644	124	191	271	26	0	18	75	73	2	114	32	3	.297	.373	.421	.794	1.76
2003	NYY	119	482	87	156	217	25	3	10	52	43	2	88	11	5	.324	.393	.450	.844	2.14
2004	NYY	154	643	111	188	303	44	1	23	78	46	1	99	23	4	.292	.352	.471	.823	1.43
2005	NYY	159	654	122	202	294	25	5	19	70	77	3	117	14	5	.309	.389	.450	.839	2.32
2006	NYY	154	623	118	214	301	39	3	14	97	69	4	102	34	5	.343	.417	.483	.900	2.74
2007	NYY	156	639	102	206	289	39	4	12	73	56	3	100	15	8	.322	.388	.452	.840	1.86
2008	NYY	150	596	88	179	243	25	3	11	69	52	0	85	11	5	.300	.363	.408	.771	1.98
2009	NYY	153	634	107	212	295	27	1	18	66	72	4	90	30	5	.334	.406	.465	.871	2.66
2010	NYY	157	663	111	179	245	30	3	10	67	63	4	106	18	5	.270	.340	.370	.710	2.91
2011	NYY	35	146	20	39	48	3	0	2	11	11	0	18	2	2	.267	.317	.329	.646	2.52
CAREER		2330	9468	1705	2965	4266	471	61	236	1146	959	37	1590	325	87	.313	.384	.451	.834	1.97

Here is the all-time career hits list as of today (May 15, 2011).

Source: Baseball Reference
 
+ - Indicates Hall of Famer. Bold indicates active player.

Rank	Player (age)	Hits	Bats
1.	Pete Rose	4256	B
2.	Ty Cobb+	4189	L
3.	Hank Aaron+	3771	R
4.	Stan Musial+	3630	L
5.	Tris Speaker+	3514	L
6.	Cap Anson+	3435	R
7.	Honus Wagner+	3420	R
8.	Carl Yastrzemski+	3419	L
9.	Paul Molitor+	3319	R
10.	Eddie Collins+	3315	L
11.	Willie Mays+	3283	R
12.	Eddie Murray+	3255	B
13.	Nap Lajoie+	3242	R
14.	Cal Ripken+	3184	R
15.	George Brett+	3154	L
16.	Paul Waner+	3152	L
17.	Robin Yount+	3142	R
18.	Tony Gwynn+	3141	L
19.	Dave Winfield+	3110	R
20.	Craig Biggio	3060	R
21.	Rickey Henderson+	3055	R
22.	Rod Carew+	3053	L
23.	Lou Brock+	3023	L
24.	Rafael Palmeiro	3020	L
25.	Wade Boggs+	3010	L
26.	Al Kaline+	3007	R
27.	Roberto Clemente+	3000	R
28.	Sam Rice+	2987	L
29.	Derek Jeter (37)	2965	R