Ichiro: Half-Way to Hall of Fame Numbers

It's now becoming pretty obvious that Ichiro will do it again this season... for the seventh time.

200 hits, that is. He will soon become only the second player in the 20th century to have seven consecutive 200-hit seasons. The other was Wade Boggs, from 1983 to 1989. Willie Keeler has the record, with 8 consecutive 200-hit seasons. (Ichiro will have to wait until the later months of the 2009 season to take a shot at that one.)

Ichiro is surely an amazing player. He will make it into the Hall of Fame, no doubt. But what kind of career numbers will get him there is not as clear.

"Will Ichiro ever reach 3,000 career hits?" is a question that is often asked on ESPN. In most cases, this question is almost equivalent to asking whether he will enter the Hall of Fame. That is the normal way we judge whether a player is worthy of being inducted or not: his numbers: whether he hits 3,000 hits; whether he hits 500 homers; whether he steals 700 bases; whether, as a pitcher, he wins or saves 300 games, or records 3,000 strikeouts.

But this method doesn't work well with Ichiro. He is not your average player. He did not enter the majors through the ordinary route. He was not drafted like almost everyone else. He did not play in the minors like almost everyone else. He did not make his major league debut in his early twenties like almost everyone else... Therefore, predicting his career numbers, and particularly how many hits he will end his career with, is quite difficult. Ichiro is perhaps the most exciting and complex example of the problem of Japanese players and their induction into the American Hall of Fame.

Had Ichiro been the ordinary rookie in his early twenties, he would have easily ended up breaking Pete Rose's record of 4,256 career hits. You do the math: 200+ hits in 20+ seasons = 4000+ career hits. Make that 220 hits (Ichiro's current yearly average) in 25 seasons (Rose's career-span), you get the astronomical number of 5,500 career hits!!!

But Ichiro is never going to reach 5,000 hits. He will never brake Rose's record. In fact, he will probably never even reach 4,000 hits. (To reach 4,000 he would have to keep up his pace of 220 hits per season at least until he's 44.) He will never do any of this because he began playing in the Majors at age 27.

The question is whether he will enter the 3,000 hit club. So, will he or will he not? Ichiro is 33 years old this season (2007), which is his seventh in the majors. This year he reached the 1,500 career-hit plateau: halfway to 3,000. To reach the 3,000 hit club, he will have to repeat what he has done so far. Therefore, if he plays equally consistently for another seven years, he will reach the milestone at age 40. Therefore, 3,000 hits is a definite possibility for him. He normally stays healthy; he is probably one of the most consistent baseball players in history. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays well into his forties.

Let's do the math. First, here are his current numbers (as of 8/24/07):

• G: 1,083
• AB: 4,627
• R: 765
• H: 1,542
• 2B: 173
• 3B: 56
• HR: 66
• RBI: 413
• TB: 2,025
• BB: 319
• SO: 437
• SB: 271
• CS: 60
• OBP: .379
• SLG: .438
• AVG: .333

This took him seven years. If we assume he produces the same numbers for another 7 years, we get a 40-year-old Ichiro who will be within, or at least close to, the following statistical plateaus after the 2014 season:

• G: 2,000
• AB: 9,000
• R: 1,500
• H: 3,000 (27th all-time; an automatic ticket to the Hall)
• 2B: 350
• 3B: 100
• HR: 130
• RBI: 800
• TB: 4,000
• BB: 600
• SO: 850
• SB: 550 (25th all-time)
• CS: 120
• OBP: .370
• SLG: .430
• AVG: .333 (tying Cap Anson, Paul Waner, and Eddie Collins for 18th all-time)

These numbers are very possible and they will definitely put them in the Hall (especially the 3,000 hits, although the stolen bases are impressive as well).

Now, just for fun, say he actually plays longer and equally well. More specifically, let's multiply his current numbers by a factor of 3! In other words, let's imagine he plays another 7 seasons after age 40 (yes, until age 47--Ryan, Franco, and many others have done it; why not Ichiro?), that is, until the 2021 season--thereby extending his career to 21 seasons, which is average for a Hall of Famer. Also, assume he keeps the same consistent numbers every season (particularly keeping the 220-hit-per-season rate) during those years as well. Let's see what happens, just for fun:

• G: 3,000 (passing Mays for 9th among all-time games played leaders)
• AB: 13,000 (passing Aaron for 2nd among all-time career at-bat leaders)
• R: 2,200! (passing Aaron for 4th among all-time career runs scored leaders)
• H: 4,500!!! (breaking Pete Rose's all-time record of 4,256 career hits leaders!!!)
• 2B: 525 (tying Ted Williams for 33rd among all-time career doubles leaders)
• 3B: 170 (passing Rogers Hornsby for 25th among all-time career triples leaders)
• HR: 200 (not bad for a skinny leadoff hitter!)
• RBI: 1,250 (very decent!)
• TB: 6,000 (passing Bonds for 4th among all-time career total bases leaders!!!)
• BB: 950
• SO: 1,300
• SB: 813! (passsing Tim Raines for 5th among all-time career stolen base leaders!!!)
• CS: 240 (giving him a superb stolen base-percentage of ca. 80%)
• OBP: .379
• SLG: .438
• AVG: .333 (tying Cap Anson, Paul Waner, and Eddie Collins for 18th among all-time career batting average leaders)

This is not just empty speculation. Although these numbers are not likely to happen, they still show what he would have done, had he played the average career-span of your average Hall of Famer. If he had come in like the rest of 'em, his career numbers would have ended up being astronomical!!!

Now, although his career numbers will probably end up a bit short of being astronomical, when he retires, do look for other possible, impressive credentials, such as:

• His having been the only player in history to hit 200 hits in his first n-teen seasons (he already holds the record with 6, and is obviously going to extend it to 7 this year).
• His having again broken the single-season hits record by hitting more than 262 in one season (he hit that many in 2004).
• His having again broken the all-time record consecutive steals without a caught-stealing (he already did it earlier this year by stealing 45 consecutive bases).
• His having broken Willie Keeler's record for most consecutive 200-hit seasons, which may happen by the end of 2009.
• His having broken Brooks Robinson's record of 16 consecutive Gold Glove awards.
• His having broken Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak.
• His having become the first player since Ted Williams (in 1941) to hit .400.
• Finally, look for more of this, and this, and THIS!

These potential Ichiro records show that it's not his career numbers that we should look for: maybe it's his day-to-day prowess, his season-to-season stats, his consistency. And then there's the odd-yet-terribly-exciting, un-American way of playing the great American Pastime.