Dwindling HR totals?

Am I the only one to notice that guys in the Majors this year are just not producing as many homers as we've gotten used to in recent years? I mean, A-Rod is doing great, with 52 homers so far, but it seems that some of the names that are usually associated with 40+ HR seasons are not making it to that plateau this year.

Albert Pujols is the first, who after having hit 40+ in the last four seasons, is now at 31, and, therefore, may finish the season off with a career low (his lowest HR total in one season was 34, in 2002).

David Ortiz, who has hit 40+ in the last three years (including 52 last year) is also at 31, with less than two weeks left of season.

Other sluggers with relatively-unimpressive HR totals this year are:

Carlos Beltran, 30
Lance Berkman, 30
Ken Griffey, 30
Jim Thome, 30
Paul Konerko, 29
Barry Bonds, 28
Alfonso Soriano, 28
Jermaine Dye, 27
Andruw Jones, 26
Chipper Jones, 26
Adrian Beltre, 25
Vladimir Guerrero, 25
Gary Sheffield, 25
Sammy Sosa, 20

In short, it seems like home run totals are down this year. In the last decade we got used to seeing a dozen guys belt 40+ HRs every year (and at least a couple of them hit 50+, and maybe even one or two hit 60+). This year it seems like only 5 guys will end up in the 40+ plateau. Now, 5 players hitting 40+ is not bad at all, compared to one or two, which was the average in the 80's; but we hadn't seen such a low season total of 40-HR players the strike-shortened season of 1995!

Everyone who follows baseball is aware of the fact that, since then, HR totals suddenly increased significantly. Most of it is blamed on steroids; for which reason the most recent period of baseball history is given the name the "Steroid Era." But now we see only 5 guys do it and we're surprised! Could it be that we're reaching the end of the Steroid Era?

Let's look at the number of players per year that have reached the 40-HR milestone, in the period between 1985 and 2007:

1985: 1
1986: 1
1987: 4
1988: 1
1989: 1
1990: 2 (one of whom hit 51)
1991: 2
1992: 2
1993: 5
1994: 2 (strike: 116-game season)
1995: 4 (1 of which hit 50; strike: 145-game season)
1996: 16 (2 of which hit 50+)
1997: 11 (1 of which hit 56)
1998: 13 (4 of which hit 50+; 2 of which hit 60+; 1 of which hit 70)
1999: 16 (2 of which hit 50+; which 2 also hit 60+)
2000: 16 (1 of which hit 50)
2001: 12 (4 of which hit 50+; 2 of which hit 60+; 1 of which hit 73)
2002: 8 (2 of which hit 50+)
2003: 10
2004: 9
2005: 9 (1 of which hit 51)
2006: 11 (2 of which hit 50+)
2007: 5 (1 of which hit 52)

So we see the dramatic boom of the late 90's (remember when the main issue was not whether it was steroids but whether the "ball was juiced"?!); and we also see a slight decrease in the first half of this decade.

The relatively-low number of players in the 40-HR club this year could be an indication of things to come--or is it simply a slump that these guys are having collectively, and which they will all eventually get out of?

Paul Gerke doesn't think so. He wrote an article this past May, "MLB Home Run Totals Down: Are New Steroid Rules to Blame? Home Runs Down to Lowest Total Since 1993", where he predicted that, due to multiple factors, HR productions would slow down this year and in years to come. However, a different perspective is offered by David Vincent, who wrote a very well-researched article titled "Was the 1990s Home Run Production Out of Line?", where he argues that the recent HR production in the Majors was not extraordinarily high, but was simply part of an ever-increasing trend, and that such trend is naturally going to keep increasing.

In the end, who knows? Only time will tell.

Chasing Rose: Who'll Be the Next All-Time Hit King?

Only two players in the history of the game have ever reached the 4,000 career-hit milestone: Ty Cobb (4,189) and Pete Rose (4,256). It's hard enough to get to the 3,000 plateau, which is evidenced by the fact that only 25 players have ever reached it in MLB history. In fact, Pete Rose's record is one of those that some people think will never be broken. Or will it?

Think for a minute how Rose accomplished it:


Pete Rose

• Played until age: 45
• Full MLB Seasons: 24
• Total Hits: 4,256
• Average Hits per full Season (henceforth, "HPS"): 177

So, not only did he hit 4,256; he hit an average of 177 every season for 24 full MLB seasons, playing until age 45. These days, most hall-of-fame-quality players are done by age 40, retiring somewhere around their 20th MLB season. Breaking this record means one not only has to get hits consistently: one has to do it for a loooooong time, longer than most players envision themselves playing (add to that the aggresiveness with which Rose played, and you will easily see Rose was an extraordinary player!).

So, who fits the bill? Who can put up the career-hits totals that Rose put up? Who can hit 177 hits every season for 24 seasons, or some other combination?

Just to see exactly what we're dealing with, let's take a look at Todd Helton, who has maintained a career .330 AVG throughout 10 full MLB seasons, getting an average of 183 HPS (higher than Rose).


Todd Helton

• Age as of today: 34
• Full MLB Seasons: 10
• Career Hits: 1,831
• Rose's career-hit total at his age: 2,547
• HPS: 183
• To pass Rose, will need to maintain that average until: 2021 (age 47 = 24th MLB season)
• Will he do it? -No. No one makes it to age 47 with consistent numbers.

This gives you an idea of how tough it is to get to 4,256 career hits!!! If he has a higher HPS than Rose, why won't he make it? Why would he still need to play until age 47 (with consistent numbers) to make it? The answer is that, whereas Rose was 22 years old during his first full season, Helton had to wait until age 24 to play full-time in the Majors. Although Helton's HPS is higher, it is not significantly higher (only 6 more hits per season than Rose). Over a 24-season span, 6 hits per season does not make a significant difference. So that means Helton, like Rose, would still have to play at least 24 total seasons in the majors to reach Rose but, having started at the relatively-late age of 24, he would be 47 or 48 by the time he got there. Breaking the record requires not only a high HPS, but also considerable longevity, consistency and health--meaning, you have to start early, and keep consistently strong numbers until you're quite old. So Helton is not likely to break the record. In fact, the difference between his current career hits (1,831) and Rose's at age 34 (2,547) gave it away. (However, I wouldn't be surprised if Helton got well into the 3,000 hit club and, therefore, ended up in the Hall. He's that good!)

So Helton won't make it, but, amazingly, there are at least 4 active players who have about as many career hits as did Rose at their respective ages. And if you're thinking Ichiro is one of them, you're wrong.

Why not Ichiro? Althought Ichiro has maintained in his 7 MLB seasons a mind-blowing average of 220 HPS (compared to Rose's 177), Ichiro made his MLB debut at the very-late age of 27. So it's the same problem that Helton is experiencing, except its more extreme:


Ichiro Suzuki

• Age as of today: 33
• Full MLB Seasons: 7
• Career Hits: 1,544
• Rose's career-hit total at his age: 2,337
• HPS: 220
• To pass Rose, will need to maintain that average until: 2021 (age 46 = 19th MLB season).
• Will he do it? -Probably not. Sounds impossible.

The 220 HPS actually takes into account only his current numbers--as if he ended the 2007 season today, with only 190 hits. (God forbid Ichiro hit fewer than 200 hits in a season!) He will most likely reach 230 hits or so this season, at the rate he's going. So his career hit total will be somewhere around 1,580 by October. This means his HPS is going to be somewhere around 225. But still, at 225 HPS, he still needs a total of 19 seasons to pass Rose--and this would keep him playing at least until age 46 (later if he spends time in the DL, or if he "slumps" below the 225 HPS).

In short, at age 33, he's only one-third of the way to the record. To get there he would have to do what he's done so far two more times. Ichiro may sometimes seem almost super-human, but this would be asking too much.

Now, what about the guys who could make it? The most obvious, perhaps, is:


Derek Jeter

• Age as of today: 33
• Full MLB Seasons: 13
• Career Hits: 2,316
• Rose's career-hit total at his age: 2,337
• HPS: 193
• To pass Rose, will need to maintain that average until: 2016 (age 42 = 22nd MLB season)
• Will he do it? -Yes, he is likely to stay healthy and consistent until age 42.

Currently, Jeter is only 20 hits below Rose at age 34, but he is likely to add 20+ hits to his carer totals before the end of the season, which means he, too, will pass Rose in hits at age 34. In other words, the only reason Jeter appears to be behind Rose is that I'm comparing Rose, at the end of the 1975 season, when he was 34, with Jeter, who has not yet finished this season, at age 34. If you let Jeter finish the season, then the comparison will be fair, and Jeter will end up passing Rose's career-hit totals at the age of 34.

Another way to look at it is the way ESPN put it. I heard on Baseball Tonight earlier this season that if you boil down their ages to the exact amount of days lived, Jeter, at his exact age (to the day), does have more hits than did Rose at the same exact age (to the day).

But here I'm treating both as just being "34 years old," without being precise as to the amount of days, etc., and I'm treating Jeter's current totals as representing 13 full seasons--in other words, as if his current seasons totals were final. This makes Jeter appear slightly behind, when in reality he is ahead of Rose in terms of career hits vs. age.

Anyway, the basic idea is that their numbers are comparable, and that Jeter is likely to break Rose's record, not only because Jeter actually has a higher hps, but because he also began his career earlier (at age 20) than Rose did (who began at age 22), so he has more time to get there. Whether or not Jeter can get there has been discussed elsewhere.

Who would be next in line, after Jeter? Perhaps surprisingly (though not really), his teammate:


Alex Rodriguez

• Age as of today: 32
• Full MLB Seasons: 12
• Career Hits: 2,213
• Rose's career-hit total at his age: 2,152
• HPS: 184
• To pass Rose, will need to maintain that average until: 2018 (age 43 = 23rd MLB season)
• Will he do it? -Yes; he's always been healthy and consistent; he can make it to 43.

A-Rod is 60+ hits ahead of Rose at his age! He also has a higher HPS and began his career earlier, finishing his first full season at age 20. A-Rod has always stayed healthy; that's why he's the only one to hit 35 homers and drive in 100 runs in 10 consecutive seasons. He's not Ripken--he has missed some games due to minor injuries--but he's never missed most of a season. The most he's missed was 32 games in '99--although he still managed to get 142 hits, 42 HR, and 111 RBI. Since then, he's never missed more than 14 games in a season.

Vladimir Guerrero

• Age as of today: 31
• Full MLB Seasons: 10
• Career Hits: 1941
• Rose's career-hit total at his age: 1922
• HPS: 194
• To pass Rose, will need to maintain that average until: 2020 (age 43 = 22nd MLB season)
• Will he do it? -He is likely to do it as long as he stays healthy.

Vlad is amazing, needless to say. Since his first full major league season he has never hit any lower than .302. His carreer average is .325. He seems to reach the 200-hit plateau every other season. (And all the while he usually hits 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI every season.) A simple way to look at him is this: at 31, when he is almost at the midpoint of his career, he is also at the midpoint in the long road towards the record, with almost 2,000 hits. It's a matter of continuing what he has been doing for a little more than twice as long as he's done it. He has been known to miss around 40 or 50 games due to injury; it all depends on his consistency and on his staying healthy.

Albert Pujols

• Age as of today: 27
• Full MLB Seasons: 7
• Career Hits: 1306
• Rose's career-hit total at his age: 1109
• HPS: 187
• To pass Rose, will need to maintain that average until: 2023 (age 43 = 23rd MLB season)
• Will he do it? -It is likely, although it is still too early to tell.

Albert is just out of this world. None of the other players has such a marked advantage over Rose at their age in terms of hits than Pujols. He is 200 hits ahead of Rose at age 27! He has either flirted with or reached the 200-hit mark every year of his career. He has never ended a season with a batting average lower than .314. He has a career average of .330. (And all the while he just made it to his seventh straight 30+ HR season.) He has never missed more than 19 games in a season (last season, when he hit 49 HRs!), so we know that he tends to stay healthy and that he's not prone to injury. But he's only 27, and he's less than one-third of the way to the record. It's too early to tell. Maybe in about or four years, when his career is roughly halfway through, we can make a better judgment. But it would sure be nice to see a power hitter of his magnitude break a record which, for the longest time, has been almost identified with an entirely different kind of player.

We don't know the future and we don't know if any of these players will end his career early due to injury. The important thing is that, even if most of these players don't end up breaking Rose's record, chances are that at least one will.

Ichiro: Half-Way to Hall of Fame Numbers

It's now becoming pretty obvious that Ichiro will do it again this season... for the seventh time.

200 hits, that is. He will soon become only the second player in the 20th century to have seven consecutive 200-hit seasons. The other was Wade Boggs, from 1983 to 1989. Willie Keeler has the record, with 8 consecutive 200-hit seasons. (Ichiro will have to wait until the later months of the 2009 season to take a shot at that one.)

Ichiro is surely an amazing player. He will make it into the Hall of Fame, no doubt. But what kind of career numbers will get him there is not as clear.

"Will Ichiro ever reach 3,000 career hits?" is a question that is often asked on ESPN. In most cases, this question is almost equivalent to asking whether he will enter the Hall of Fame. That is the normal way we judge whether a player is worthy of being inducted or not: his numbers: whether he hits 3,000 hits; whether he hits 500 homers; whether he steals 700 bases; whether, as a pitcher, he wins or saves 300 games, or records 3,000 strikeouts.

But this method doesn't work well with Ichiro. He is not your average player. He did not enter the majors through the ordinary route. He was not drafted like almost everyone else. He did not play in the minors like almost everyone else. He did not make his major league debut in his early twenties like almost everyone else... Therefore, predicting his career numbers, and particularly how many hits he will end his career with, is quite difficult. Ichiro is perhaps the most exciting and complex example of the problem of Japanese players and their induction into the American Hall of Fame.

Had Ichiro been the ordinary rookie in his early twenties, he would have easily ended up breaking Pete Rose's record of 4,256 career hits. You do the math: 200+ hits in 20+ seasons = 4000+ career hits. Make that 220 hits (Ichiro's current yearly average) in 25 seasons (Rose's career-span), you get the astronomical number of 5,500 career hits!!!

But Ichiro is never going to reach 5,000 hits. He will never brake Rose's record. In fact, he will probably never even reach 4,000 hits. (To reach 4,000 he would have to keep up his pace of 220 hits per season at least until he's 44.) He will never do any of this because he began playing in the Majors at age 27.

The question is whether he will enter the 3,000 hit club. So, will he or will he not? Ichiro is 33 years old this season (2007), which is his seventh in the majors. This year he reached the 1,500 career-hit plateau: halfway to 3,000. To reach the 3,000 hit club, he will have to repeat what he has done so far. Therefore, if he plays equally consistently for another seven years, he will reach the milestone at age 40. Therefore, 3,000 hits is a definite possibility for him. He normally stays healthy; he is probably one of the most consistent baseball players in history. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays well into his forties.

Let's do the math. First, here are his current numbers (as of 8/24/07):

• G: 1,083
• AB: 4,627
• R: 765
• H: 1,542
• 2B: 173
• 3B: 56
• HR: 66
• RBI: 413
• TB: 2,025
• BB: 319
• SO: 437
• SB: 271
• CS: 60
• OBP: .379
• SLG: .438
• AVG: .333

This took him seven years. If we assume he produces the same numbers for another 7 years, we get a 40-year-old Ichiro who will be within, or at least close to, the following statistical plateaus after the 2014 season:

• G: 2,000
• AB: 9,000
• R: 1,500
• H: 3,000 (27th all-time; an automatic ticket to the Hall)
• 2B: 350
• 3B: 100
• HR: 130
• RBI: 800
• TB: 4,000
• BB: 600
• SO: 850
• SB: 550 (25th all-time)
• CS: 120
• OBP: .370
• SLG: .430
• AVG: .333 (tying Cap Anson, Paul Waner, and Eddie Collins for 18th all-time)

These numbers are very possible and they will definitely put them in the Hall (especially the 3,000 hits, although the stolen bases are impressive as well).

Now, just for fun, say he actually plays longer and equally well. More specifically, let's multiply his current numbers by a factor of 3! In other words, let's imagine he plays another 7 seasons after age 40 (yes, until age 47--Ryan, Franco, and many others have done it; why not Ichiro?), that is, until the 2021 season--thereby extending his career to 21 seasons, which is average for a Hall of Famer. Also, assume he keeps the same consistent numbers every season (particularly keeping the 220-hit-per-season rate) during those years as well. Let's see what happens, just for fun:

• G: 3,000 (passing Mays for 9th among all-time games played leaders)
• AB: 13,000 (passing Aaron for 2nd among all-time career at-bat leaders)
• R: 2,200! (passing Aaron for 4th among all-time career runs scored leaders)
• H: 4,500!!! (breaking Pete Rose's all-time record of 4,256 career hits leaders!!!)
• 2B: 525 (tying Ted Williams for 33rd among all-time career doubles leaders)
• 3B: 170 (passing Rogers Hornsby for 25th among all-time career triples leaders)
• HR: 200 (not bad for a skinny leadoff hitter!)
• RBI: 1,250 (very decent!)
• TB: 6,000 (passing Bonds for 4th among all-time career total bases leaders!!!)
• BB: 950
• SO: 1,300
• SB: 813! (passsing Tim Raines for 5th among all-time career stolen base leaders!!!)
• CS: 240 (giving him a superb stolen base-percentage of ca. 80%)
• OBP: .379
• SLG: .438
• AVG: .333 (tying Cap Anson, Paul Waner, and Eddie Collins for 18th among all-time career batting average leaders)

This is not just empty speculation. Although these numbers are not likely to happen, they still show what he would have done, had he played the average career-span of your average Hall of Famer. If he had come in like the rest of 'em, his career numbers would have ended up being astronomical!!!

Now, although his career numbers will probably end up a bit short of being astronomical, when he retires, do look for other possible, impressive credentials, such as:

• His having been the only player in history to hit 200 hits in his first n-teen seasons (he already holds the record with 6, and is obviously going to extend it to 7 this year).
• His having again broken the single-season hits record by hitting more than 262 in one season (he hit that many in 2004).
• His having again broken the all-time record consecutive steals without a caught-stealing (he already did it earlier this year by stealing 45 consecutive bases).
• His having broken Willie Keeler's record for most consecutive 200-hit seasons, which may happen by the end of 2009.
• His having broken Brooks Robinson's record of 16 consecutive Gold Glove awards.
• His having broken Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak.
• His having become the first player since Ted Williams (in 1941) to hit .400.
• Finally, look for more of this, and this, and THIS!

These potential Ichiro records show that it's not his career numbers that we should look for: maybe it's his day-to-day prowess, his season-to-season stats, his consistency. And then there's the odd-yet-terribly-exciting, un-American way of playing the great American Pastime.

Miller Park

A Review for The Smarter Fan

BASIC FACTS:

-Location: One Brewers Way, Milwaukee, WI 53214.
-Opened: April 6, 2001.
-Surface: Grass.
-Dimensions: (See diagram on right.)

HIGHLIGHTS:

-Within the stadium itself, the primary structural highlight is the retractable roof. Seeing the roof open or close is quite an experience. If you stick around after a ballgame you will most likely see either happen.

-Location: About a 90-minute drive from both U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) and the classic Wrigley Field, and 5 hours away from Minneapolis' Metrodome, Miller Park can be tackled in the same road trip as these other three fields. It is also a little over an hour away from several minor league teams: the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Mariners' Class A) in Appleton, WI; the Beloit Snappers (Twins' Class A), in Beloit, WI; the Swing of the Quad Cities (Cardinals' Class A), in Davenport, IA; and the Kane County Cougars (A's Class A), in Geneva, IL. See the map to the right for a number of other minor league teams in the greater region.

-It is a hitter's ballpark, especially with the roof closed. It is cool to see the ball carry.

-When the Brewers hit a homer, Bernie (the Brewers' mascot) slides down from his “dugout” through his huge yellow slide and waves a Brewers flag.

-When the panels are open in the outfield, the ball can actually leave the stadium; Sosa did it during the 2002 Home Run Derby.

-They've actually got a TGI Friday's inside the stadium, overlooking the field, that is open 365 days a year. So if you ever happen to be in Milwaukee in the offseason and want to take a look at Miller Park, you can just go have lunch or dinner there. Just to let you know how nice this is, here is a list of ballparks around which I have driven without being able to go inside of them: Jacobs Field (Cleveland), Great American Ballpark (Cincinatti), U.S. Cellular (Chicago White Sox), Busch Stadium (St. Louis), Kauffmann Stadium (Kansas City), Minute Maid Park (Houston), Yankee Stadium and Shea Stadium (New York). Until recently I hadn't been to--but had driven around--Turner Field (Atlanta). A simple inside-the-stadium restaurant would have been nice to have so I could have at least furthered my checklist.

-The Sausage Races are the best in baseball! (Check 'em out on YouTube!) They sure beat those silly computerized races that most parks display on their screens between innings and nobody pays attention to.

-And, finally, Milwaukee Brats are the best!!!

NOT-SO-HIGH-LIGHTS:

-Night games are a bit dark; the lighting system doesn't seem to be as efficient as that of most other stadiums.

-The stadium is not exactly in prime real estate. Miller park does not take as much advantage of its city's beauty as other modern MLB stadiums, such as Pittsburgh's PNC Park (which features a stunning view of the city's skyline over right field), or San Francisco's AT&T Park (which overlooks the San Francisco Bay). Milwaukee boasts of a very attractive skyline, a beautiful bay shore, and an incredible view of Lake Michigan, none of which is taken advantage of by Miller Park.

-It can get quite cold in Milwaukee, even during baseball season, especilly in April and September, (not to mention October, if the Brewers make it). Keep this in mind if you are a thrifty fan and decide to park for free a quarter mile away from the stadium—you may have to walk in the cold for a while. You won't have to worry about rough weather while inside the stadium (they've got the roof, plus park-wide climate control); it's the walk that can be painful.

SEATS/PRICING:

-Cheapest Tickets: Uecker Seats are located in the nosebleed section behind home plate and go for $1 when gates open on day of game only, while they last. These seats are partially obstructed--e.g., by columns, etc. (see picture).

-Next Cheapest: "Bernie's Terrace" (Left Field nosebleed), sections 441-442, between Bernie's dugout and the left field foul pole, which go for $5, but must be bought well in advance (weeks, if possible).

-Cost of Seats Behind Dugouts (Autograph Seats) and Behind Home Plate: immediately behind (field diamond box), $85 ea.; several rows back, they go for $42 (field infield box).

To be continued...

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Green & Teal Monsters: Which is More Intimidating?

Which is more effective in keeping baseballs inside the ballpark: the Green Monster (Fenway Park) or the Teal Monster (Dolphin Stadium)?

-The popular sentiment seems to be that the Green Monster is more intimidating. The Green Monster is more feared by batters and has a greater fame for being big, but, with all due respect to the venerable Green Monster, I would say the Teal Monster is, in fact, more effective in keeping baseballs in the park and, therefore, at least should be more intimidating for right-handed hitters. (The question of which one is more intimidating for left fielders is quite a different question altogether--the Green Monster would probably win that contest--but that is not the issue here).

Why do I think the Teal Monster should be more intimidating for right-handed hitters? Although the Green Monster is 37 feet tall, and, therefore, is 4 feet taller than the Teal Monster (33 feet tall), nevertheless the Teal Monster is between 330 feet (left field foul pole) and 434 feet away (center field) from home plate, whereas the Green Monster is only between 310 (foul pole) and 379 (left-center) from home. Therefore, although the ball has to fly 4 feet higher at Fenway to clear the fence, it needs to travel at least 20 feet farther at Dolphin Stadium. The average home run, upon landing, descends more than 4 feet per 20 feet of horizontal travel. This means that most balls that fly over the Teal Monster would also fly over the Green Monster, but not vice versa. Conversely, many high fly balls that just make it over the Monster at Fenway would stay well within Dolphin Stadium and end up being fly outs. The physics alone make it evident.

Not convinced? The next time you have a chance, ask any major-league, right-handed slugger whether he would prefer that the fence be 20 feet farther away form home or just 4 feet higher from the ground; I bet he would say the latter.

Also, the Teal Monster is a bit longer, extending throughout the entire left field wall, from the left field foul pole to almost straightaway center field. The Green Monster, on the other hand, extends from the pole to somewhere between left-center and straightaway center (see diagrams). So the Teal Monster covers more of the fence.

As a consequence of all of this, it seems clear that the Teal Monster is more effective in keeping balls in the ballpark than the Green Monster, despite popular sentiments to the contrary. Perhaps an indication of this is that, despite the Marlins' success in winning two world championships, in all those 14 years of Marlins baseball since they began playing in 1993, there has only been one Marlins hitter who has achieved a 40+ HR season: Gary Sheffield in 1996, with 42. (This fact is rather surprising in ours, the "steroids era.") Sheffield was so hot that year that he acomplished this despite being a right-handed slugger who had to play half of his games against that Teal Monster. (Imagine what he would have done if he had played for another franchise instead, especially one with a "hitter's ballpark," like Coors Field!)

To conclude, if you ask me which one is more historically relevant, more venerable, and more dear to my heart, I would say the Green Monster. But I think Teal Monster is physically more effective in keeping balls in the ballpark.

Dolphin Stadium

A Review for The Smarter Fan

BASIC FACTS:

-Location: 2269 Dan Marino Boulevard, Miami Gardens, Florida 33056
-Opened: August 16, 1987
-Surface: Grass
-Dimensions:

• Left Field - 330 ft / 101 m
• Left-Center - 361 ft / 110 m
• Center Field - 434 ft / 132 m
• Right-Center - 361 ft / 110 m
• Right Field - 345 ft / 105 m
• Backstop - 58 ft / 18 m

HIGHLIGHTS:

-Location, Location, Location! Southern Florida, due mainly to its climate, is a baseball haven (famous for being one of the two Spring Training regions), so you can get a lot of baseball for the price of one roadtrip. In addition to being the home of the Grapefruit League (MLB Spring Training), the region also hosts many minor league professional teams, including the Jacksonville Suns (AA Dodgers), the entire Florida State League (High-Class A Professional Baseball), and the entire Gulf-Coast League (Rookie Class Minor League Baseball). (See map to the right.) Also, Dolphin Stadium is only 3 1/2 to 4 hrs. away from another MLB stadium, Tropicana Field, the home of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays--which is an AL stadium and, therefore, means you can access both AL and NL games in the region. Ideally, you would make your roadtrip in March and April: that way you can first attend Spring Training games (and get LOTS and LOTS of autographs) in March, and then attend MLB and MiLB regular season games in April.

-Within the stadium itself, the primary highlight is its structural centerpiece: an enormous, 33 foot-high scoreboard, known as "The Teal Monster" (see picture), which is in play, rivaling Fenway's "Green Monster" as an intimidating factor for right-handed pull hitters.

-The stadium also has another intimidating feature in its outfield wall: an awkward-shaped gap in center field that can reduce a would-be 440-foot homer into a triple or even a mere--though often spectacular--flyout, which adds much excitement to the game (see picture).

-Stadium has the two largest HD video boards in pro sports and the longest LED ribbon board in the world. Having two video boards is really helpful and cool to look at.

-Miami's humid weather helps the ball "float" a bit more than in most other stadiums.

-The Cubano Sandwich gives you an authentic regional flavor and it is soooo worth the money!

-Watching a day game under Miami's unparallelled sunshine is quite an experience.


NOT-SO-HIGH-LIGHTS:

-"Convertible" football/baseball stadium; in some sections, the seats are not lined-up correctly for baseball-watching. Football atmosphere disrupts baseball atmosphere a bit.

-Of the 77,000 seats that are open for football games, about 30,000 are closed off during baseball games--which means that even when 40,000 fans attend the game, the impression one gets is that there is that the stadium is half empty and that Marlins fans are "dead."

-There is way too much advertizing in the stadium, especially on the outfield fence, which looks like a minor league fence.

-The stadium has that old feel to it ("old," not as in "quaint, vintage, classy"--but as in "outdated and obsolete"): it was built in '85, and it is neither modern nor old-fashioned. It is just out of style. The teal and pinkish colors are "sooo early-nineties"!

-The "Mermaids" (the Marlins' cheerleaders) are corny, scantily-dressed, badly-choreographed, sexually-suggestive dancers that do no more than distract fans from much of the interesting stuff that is happening between innings and between pitching changes. No matter where you're sitting, even in the nosebleed sections you will get a closeup of their rear ends on the two huge screens. There is no way to avoid them. They are neither a good example nor appropriate entertainment for our children (nor ourselves)--all of which goes against the family atmosphere that should prevail in our National Pastime.

-Tickets and food prices reflect the high cost of living of the South Florida region; if you're not smart about saving money, they will suck you dry. For instance, I once ended up paying nearly $40 for gyros for my wife and two older girls (ages 2 and 4).

-The security is unfortunately a bit tight (something necessary in Miami), which means it's hard to get autographs (see below). The Marlins players are not too eager to sign autographs, either--which makes no sense, since they are obviously in need of attracting fans and increasing attendance, and they are going to end up moving to a different city if they don't.


SEATS/PRICING:

-Cheapest Tickets: "The Fishtank" (Right-Center Field seats), sections 125-127, which go for $9 if bought in advance. Not a bad view (see picture to the left), and you may even catch a home run ball--especially during low-attendance games.

-Cost of Seats Behind Dugouts (Autograph Seats): $80 for rows 2-7 ("Founder's Club").

-Cost of Seats Behind Home Plate: $100 for the front row ("Founder's Club MVP"). However, eight rows back (the "MVP" section) seats are only $45. Your feet, rather than your face, will be on TV, but you get essentially the same view and you get to keep $55!

-Worst Seats for the Price: The nosebleed upper deck sections (400s) go for $20 for Saturday Games. You can barely tell who's who on the field and you're paying twice as much as the fans in the Fishtank. Not to mention you may get vertigo from being up so high (see picture below).

-How to Avoid Paying More: Buy tickets in advance, and avoid Saturday Games (prices are higher because of the concert after the game). Cheap tickets for all premium games and other popular games (e.g., all-fan giveaway games) get sold out fast; if you don't buy at least a week in advance you may get stuck with crappy, expensive tickets.


PARKING:

There is plenty of parking in the stadium grounds, and it costs $10. However, close by, to the southwest of the Stadium, there is a Walmart with a huge parking lot with plenty of space (see satelite picture below). The Walmart lot says it is for Walmart customers only. I usually park there and get myself Cracker Jacks and other snacks and bring them to the game (so no one can tow my car and say I'm not a customer). I've never had a problem. Plus, food is more expensive at the ballpark than at Walmart. (Remember, however, that you will be asked to leave cans and unsecured liquid containers behind when entering the ballpark.)


AUTOGRAPHS:

-Difficulty of Getting Autographs at this Stadium: I would say it's about a 7 out of 10 (10 being impossible, 1 being a piece of cake). It is a bit hard because the security is high, but it is not impossible because at least one or two players will always make it a point to sign, and in this stadium there aren't a whole lot of fans trying to get autographs, so there is no competition.

-Before the Gates Open: All players (both Marlins and visitors) enter through Gate A, on the third-base side (see picture), between three and four hours before the game. There is a semi-secured entryway (fans can sneak in for autographs), and then a highly-secured, fenced-in, gated parking lot (fans cannot go in without a special pass).

A few Marlins will park on the semi-secure entryway, just outside of the fenced-in, gated parking lot. It is relatively easy to ask these players for autographs.

Other Marlins will drive straight into the fenced-in lot. You can stand behind the traffic dividers and ask (politely, but loudly and insistently) for autographs. Few will stop their cars and roll-down their windows to sign items. If they don't stop (and most won't) you won't be able to get them when they get out of their cars.

Yet others will be dropped off outside of the semi-secured entryway. It is very easy to ask for autographs if this happens.

At some point, the visitors' bus comes in. It usually drives up right in front of the gate to the secured area, with the door facing towards the gate, so you have very little time to sneak in and ask for autographs. You will be lucky if you get one.

Be nice to the security guard (don't sit on the railing, be polite, engage in small talk with her) and she might even give you the green light to run in to get an autograph or two.

Also, if you are lucky enough to find one or two people doing the same thing you are doing, stick close to them because they are local autograph junkies and they really know what they're doing. You'll learn a lot from them and, most importantly, they'll give you specific details about how best to get autographs there.

-Saturday Autograph Sessions: The first 100 kids 12 and under through the gates at each Saturday home game in 2007 will receive an invitation for an exclusive pre-game autograph session with a Marlins player or coach.

-When the Gates Open: An hour and a half before the game, the gates will open; the players will be most likely taking batting practice. At this time, go right behind, or right next to, one of the dugouts. (Be sure not to climb onto, of put your stuff on top of, the dugouts.) Technically, there is a no-autograph policy--and the security staff will tell you this. This just means that the players are technically violating the "policy" when they sign an autograph, so don't be offended if they don't sign. However, at least one or two players (different players every day, depending on what role they are scheduled to play in the game) always make it a point to sign a few autographs.

In my experience, I have had much better luck with the Marlins than with visiting teams.

Around 45 minutes before gametime, you will be asked by the ushers to go back to your seat. If you have Founders Club seats (behind dugout) you may stay, and you will have a few extra minutes during which you may get lucky.

-After the Game: In general, players--especially those in the losing team--are not likely to sign autographs on the field right after the game. Most of them just go straight into the clubhouse when it's over. However, about 30 minutes after the game, after they've showered, etc., they begin leaving the ballpark, again through Gate A. Follow the same tips as before the game.

COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS? I intend this post to serve as a resource for fans who want to be smart about visiting Dolphin Stadium, especially for those wishing getting autographs there. If you have any comments, suggestions, or tips that you would like to share to help me improve this post, please submit a comment below or email me at: Phil_050@yahoo.com