Who's Next to 3,000? A-Rod

Link to mlb.com article.

Will Manny Reach the 2000 RBI Club?

The 2000 RBI club is one of baseball's most exclusive.  Currently, there are only three baseball players in it: Hank Aaron (2297 career RBI), Babe Ruth (2213 career RBI), and Cap Anson (2075 career RBI), who are not only hall of famers, but certainly three of the best hitters in the history of the game.  Honorable mention goes to Lou Gehrig (1995 career RBI). [In my book, Barry Bonds (1996* career RBI) gets dishonorable mention.]

Here are the top 20 players in the all-time career RBI list (online source: www.baseball-reference.com, asterisks added):

+ - Indicates Hall of Famer. Bold indicates active player.

Rank	Player (age)	Runs Batted In	Bats
1.	Hank Aaron+	2297	R
2.	Babe Ruth+	2213	L
3.	Cap Anson+	2075	R
4.	Barry Bonds	1996*	L
5.	Lou Gehrig+	1995	L
6.	Stan Musial+	1951	L
7.	Ty Cobb+	1938	L
8.	Jimmie Foxx+	1922	R
9.	Eddie Murray+	1917	B
10.	Willie Mays+	1903	R
11.	Mel Ott+	1860	L
12.	Carl Yastrzemski+	1844	L
13.	Ted Williams+	1839	L
14.	Ken Griffey (40)	1836	L
15.	Rafael Palmeiro	1835*	L
16.	Dave Winfield+	1833	R
17.	Al Simmons+	1827	R
18.	Manny Ramirez (38)	1822*	R
19.	Frank Robinson+	1812	R
20.	Alex Rodriguez (34)	1751*	R

Griffey (1836) retired recently, so he didn't make it to the 2000 club.  

A-Rod (1751), currently 34 years old, will obviously make it: all he needs is 250 more RBI, which can be done in five more years (before he turns 40) at the comfortable pace of 50 RBI per year.

But take a look at Manny.  To date (6/22/10), at age 38, Manny has collected 1822 career RBI.   He needs only 178 RBI to get there.   Although, according to www.baseball-reference.com, he averages 131 RBI per 162 games, it is obvious that his numbers will decline as he gets older.  Last season was his RBI low since his rookie year (1994).  Take a look at his complete MLB stats:

Career: Batting | Fielding
SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1993	Cle	22	53	5	9	1	0	2	5	2	8	0	0	.170	.200	.302	.502
1994	Cle	91	290	51	78	22	0	17	60	42	72	4	2	.269	.357	.521	.878
1995	Cle	137	484	85	149	26	1	31	107	75	112	6	6	.308	.402	.558	.960
1996	Cle	152	550	94	170	45	3	33	112	85	104	8	5	.309	.399	.582	.981
1997	Cle	150	561	99	184	40	0	26	88	79	115	2	3	.328	.415	.538	.953
1998	Cle	150	571	108	168	35	2	45	145	76	121	5	3	.294	.377	.599	.976
1999	Cle	147	522	131	174	34	3	44	165	96	131	2	4	.333	.442	.663	1.105
2000	Cle	118	439	92	154	34	2	38	122	86	117	1	1	.351	.457	.697	1.154
2001	Bos	142	529	93	162	33	2	41	125	81	147	0	1	.306	.405	.609	1.014
2002	Bos	120	436	84	152	31	0	33	107	73	85	0	0	.349	.450	.647	1.097
2003	Bos	154	569	117	185	36	1	37	104	97	94	3	1	.325	.427	.587	1.014
2004	Bos	152	568	108	175	44	0	43	130	82	124	2	4	.308	.397	.613	1.010
2005	Bos	152	554	112	162	30	1	45	144	80	119	1	0	.292	.388	.594	.982
2006	Bos	130	449	79	144	27	1	35	102	100	102	0	1	.321	.439	.619	1.058
2007	Bos	133	483	84	143	33	1	20	88	71	92	0	0	.296	.388	.493	.881
2008	Bos	100	365	66	109	22	1	20	68	52	86	1	0	.299	.398	.529	.927
2008	LA	53	187	36	74	14	0	17	53	35	38	2	0	.396	.489	.743	1.232
2008	--	153	552	102	183	36	1	37	121	87	124	3	0	.332	.430	.601	1.031
2009	LA	104	352	62	102	24	2	19	63	71	81	0	1	.290	.418	.531	.949
2010	LAD	51	158	27	48	11	0	8	34	23	30	1	1	.304	.389	.525	.914
Total	--	2258	8120	1533	2542	542	20	554	1822	1306	1778	38	33	.313	.411	.589	1.000

So let's be gentle with Manny and let's not expect him to drive in so many runs.  Let's take last year's numbers (63 RBI) as the expected yearly average for the rest of his career.  If he does that, he will be in the 2000 RBI club by 2013 (age 41).  It is not only possible, but I would venture to say that it is probable.  And, despite the fact that his numbers are tainted by his history of steroids, I can't deny it will be fun to watch.