Thursday, May 19, 2011

Franceour: Citi Field's Huge Dimensions Affects Mets' Numbers

Link to Fox Sports article.
Posted by Don Paco at 9:10 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

The Changeup: The Almighty Equalizer

Link to MLB.com article.
Posted by Don Paco at 8:07 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Is Bautista on Steroids?

Link to Wall Street Journal article.
Posted by Don Paco at 7:45 AM 0 comments

Sunday, May 15, 2011

SmarterFan Projections: Can Jeter Make it to 4,000 Hits?

We know Jeter is bound for the 3,000 hit club.  With 2,965 career hits as of today (May 15, 2011), he will collect those remaining 35 hits in a little over a month, probably before the All-Star Break, assuming he stays healthy.  It's only a matter of when.  Not only that, but he will likely end up close to 3,100 hits by the end of the year. 

Yet, what is he likely to accomplish by the end of his career?  Can he make it to 4,000?  Only two people have ever reached that incredible mark (Pete Rose with 4256, Ty Cobb with 4189).  But is it nonesensical to hope Jeter makes it?  I say it isn't.

He is no. 28 in the all-time hits list, and rapidly ascending.   And the key is that he's only 37 years old. That doesn't exactly make him a youngster, but it means he has a few years left to go.  I'd say maybe five or so more.  If he does, then he's in.

Let's assume that he gets to 3100 by the end of the year, and continues to play until age 43, collecting a modest average of 150 hits per year. You'll agree that this is conservative if you consider that he's never had a full season with fewer than 156 hits (2003), and his 162-game average is 206 hits.  Plus, at 600 AB per year, 150 hits means an avg. of .250; yet he's never had a full season with less than .270 (2011).  Anyway, assuming that he ends up with 3100 this year, then gets 150 hits per year until he's 42: this results in a projection of approximately 4,000 hits.

You will say that this is unrealistic because it is unlikely he plays until age 43.  Ok, so let's say he retires at 42.  After reaching 3,100 at the end of the year, he would only need to hit 180 per year to make it to 4,000 by age 42.  To make it there by age 41 he would have to turn into an Ichiro, hitting 225 per year, which is highly unlikely.  So the key is longevity.

Either way--whether he makes it to 4,000 or not--he will make it to the top 10 in the all-time list.  And I will be proud to tell my grandchildren than I watched him do it.

Here are Jeter's career stats as of today (May 15, 2011).
Source: mlb.com


Here is the all-time career hits list as of today (May 15, 2011).
Source: Baseball Reference
 
+ - Indicates Hall of Famer. Bold indicates active player.
Rank Player (age) HitsBats
1.Pete Rose 4256B
2.Ty Cobb+ 4189L
3.Hank Aaron+ 3771R
4.Stan Musial+ 3630L
5.Tris Speaker+ 3514L
6.Cap Anson+ 3435R
7.Honus Wagner+ 3420R
8.Carl Yastrzemski+ 3419L
9.Paul Molitor+ 3319R
10.Eddie Collins+ 3315L
11.Willie Mays+ 3283R
12.Eddie Murray+ 3255B
13.Nap Lajoie+ 3242R
14.Cal Ripken+ 3184R
15.George Brett+ 3154L
16.Paul Waner+ 3152L
17.Robin Yount+ 3142R
18.Tony Gwynn+ 3141L
19.Dave Winfield+ 3110R
20.Craig Biggio 3060R
21.Rickey Henderson+ 3055R
22.Rod Carew+ 3053L
23.Lou Brock+ 3023L
24.Rafael Palmeiro 3020L
25.Wade Boggs+ 3010L
26.Al Kaline+ 3007R
27.Roberto Clemente+ 3000R
28.Sam Rice+ 2987L
29.Derek Jeter (37)2965R

Posted by Don Paco at 5:41 PM 0 comments
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